4 Decision‑Making Shortcuts Top CEOs Use

Great CEOs don’t always have better information—they have better defaults. Use these four shortcuts to make high‑quality decisions faster, without spiking risk.

1) Reversible vs. Irreversible (the “Two‑Door” Test)

Why it works: Not all decisions deserve the same rigor. First, ask: If we’re wrong, how hard is this to undo?

• Door A — Reversible: Low cost to change. Bias to action. Ship a test.
  
  
• Door B — Irreversible: High cost to change. Slow down, widen input, stress‑test.
  
  

How to apply (3 steps):

1. Label the decision A or B.
   
   
2. If A: define a micro‑experiment (time‑boxed) and a success metric.
   
   
3. If B: list 2 hidden assumptions and design a quick “disconfirm test” for each.
   
   

Pitfalls to avoid: Calling everything “Door B.” If you can pilot safely, it’s Door A.

2) The 70/40 Rule (decide with “enough” information)

Why it works: Waiting for perfect info stalls momentum, but guessing creates rework. Decide when you have ~40–70% of the info you wish you had—then learn the rest through action.

Prompts:

• What new fact would most likely change our call?
  
  
• What’s the fastest, cheapest way to learn it this week?
  
  

Team ritual: Stamp major calls with a “confidence band” (e.g., 0.6) and schedule a revisit when new data arrives.

3) OODA Loop (Observe → Orient → Decide → Act)

Why it works: Treat decisions as loops, not one‑and‑done events. Short loops beat long debates.

How to apply:

• Observe: What just happened? What signals matter?
  
  
• Orient: What does that mean in our context?
  
  
• Decide: Pick the next, smallest step that changes reality.
  
  
• Act: Execute—then loop when a pre‑defined signal hits.
  
  

Pro tip: Make the next loop trigger explicit (e.g., “If CAC > $210 after 20 signups, loop on pricing”).

4) Pre‑Mortem + Kill Criteria

Why it works: Teams fall in love with their ideas. A 10‑minute pre‑mortem exposes blind spots before launch and sets objective kill/continue rules that prevent sunk‑cost drift.

Run it fast:

1. “It’s six weeks later and the project failed—why?” (list top 5 reasons)
   
   
2. Convert each into a mitigation and an early warning signal.
   
   
3. Agree on kill criteria now (e.g., “If payback > 12 months by Week 8, pause & redesign”).
   

One‑Page Decision Sheet (copy/paste)

Decision:
Owner:
Two‑Door: A (reversible) / B (irreversible) — why?
Info check: What we know / what might change the call (40–70% test)
OODA: Next step, signal to loop, date
Pre‑Mortem: Top risks → mitigations
Kill criteria:
Notes/Docs: link(s)

Quick‑start plan (this week)

• Pick one upcoming decision; label it A or B.
  
  
• If A: launch a micro‑test in 48 hours. If B: run a 10‑minute pre‑mortem.
  
  
• Stamp the call with a confidence band and a loop trigger.
  
  
• Review outcomes Friday; update the playbook.